Sunday, 6 June 2010

Bit of terrifying news...

Iran has now offered to help escort aid ships into Gaza.This is alongside Turkey's offer to do the same a few days ago. In that case America basically begged them not to, realising that could seriously destablise things in the region.

If Iran and Turkey were to deploy ships in support of aid convoys it would mean Israel would have two choices, start a war, or back down entirely. Neither of these are palitable choices.

In 4GW terms, Iran and Turkey have Israel exactly where they want the state. No choices remain which are good, all outcomes will lead to severe reprecussions on Israel's ability to function as a major power. All aspects of Israel's power, political, military and so forth, will be weakened unilaterally, further to the state they've already been reduced to.

And in truth, its not like Iran and Turkey have to risk anything massive, if they each send over a speedboat with three guys in it thats their 'navy' represented. If Israel board foreign naval vessels, or worse yet fire on them, who knows where it'll end up.

It now remains to be seen if this is posturing by Iran and Turkey. If they are willing to take a roll of the dice, their chances of losing out here are virtually nil.

The consequences for Israel are truly dire. Already faced with an international inquiry into their actions of late, they have been squarely outmanuvered by a combination of two states and a powerful anti Israel movement.

Long term, even if this doesnt play out, the playbook on how to weaken Israel is now firmly established, the narrative is in place and all the actors know their parts. This will happen again, sooner or later.

I wanted to end with something pithy, but words don't seem appropriate. I hope this can be resolved peacefully, but I'm worried it won't be. Too many hot heads, too little understanding.

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