Friday, 7 May 2010

Whats next?

In case it went over anyone/everyone's heads, the title to this piece is in fact a reference to the West Wing.

So, the election is technically over, but we're a long way from having a Government. Further than most people think in my opinion.

Cameron will have to alienate significant sections of the Conservative Party to offer a platform the Liberal Democrats will sign up to. And the Liberal Democrats would have to give up on their once in a generation opportunity to force through voting reform.

It shouldnt be understated how much damage Cameron will do to himself and his brand of Conservatism if he compromises too much with the Lib Dems.

The problem is that to get an absolute assurance of voting reform the Lib Dems would have to join up with Brown, the clunking fist, and in this case the bitter pill which would need to be swallowed. Will they do it? In my opinion they'd be mad not to.

Consider this. Lib Dems support Brown, a man who is undeniably on his last legs. As his last act, before being given the 'old yellar' treatment by one of the Milibands or Balls, he pushes through a voting reform Bill. At that point, its off to the races. The main parties struggle to adapt, the Lib Dems potentially thrive and Parliament is totally revamped. Certainly the days of 50 seats would be a distant memory.

Its incredible that Brown has so alienated and horrified the country that Clegg is almost ruling out any deal with him, even though it will almost certainly destroy any prospect of voting reform.

Anyway, I have no idea what comes next. I think we're now in the realms of personal choice. A very small number of people in each Party will decide what happens now. Three men are fighting for political and personal survival.

I don't think its overstating the case to say this is a once in a generation political situation.

1 comment:

  1. As I understand it Labour plus the Lib Dems wouldn't have an outright majority without the assistance of other parties, which might prove difficult, so I can well understand Clegg approaching Cameron first.

    But I agree, Lab+Lib feels like a much better match than Con+Lib in terms of economy and openness to electoral reform.

    I do wonder where the middle ground is going to be found on the reform issue. Some Lib Dems are talking right now about accepting nothing less than a promise of full PR, which neither Labour or the Tories have anything to gain from.