Wednesday, 5 May 2010

So, it's time

In about 10 hours the polls open and it all begins. It's been a strange old campaign, Brown couldnt do anything right, Cameron didnt ever really get traction, and Clegg came out of nowhere and wasnt really ready for it.

If anyone tells you they know whats going to happen tomorrow, they're a liar. Its too close and too unpredictable. Universal swing has been proven to be an absolute nonsense although the media persist in using it. Why that is, goodness knows, but ours is not to reason why.

The smart money seems to be that the Conservatives will come out on top, with Labour coming second and the Liberal Democrats will gain a good number of seats at the expense of both parties. Personally I'm not sure the Conservatives will get an outright majority, but we'll see how it goes.

The model I've come to rely on most during this election is the one avaliable on FiveThirtyEight, the maths makes sense and it better fits most of the nonsense results universal swing throws up.

Thats all for tonight, after the election I'll be doing a piece on each of the campaigns, reviewing what I see as being the strengths and weaknesses of each.
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