Sunday, 2 May 2010

A bit of future gazing

There's an excellent article by Renard Sexton over on FiveThirtyEight giving an overview of the implications of first past the post voting and what the future might hold for the Liberal Democracts. Well worth a read if you're interested in that sort of thing.

I've got to the stage now where I'm largely checked out on the election, barring something dramatic happening its largely played out. Although there is always the possibility of another 'bigotgate' incident, I personally doubt there's a great deal left to happen bar voting, which I will most likely be doing at a deeply unsociable hour, since I can't face standing in line after work.

What interests me now is what will happen directly after the election. Here are a random group of thoughts which have occured to me about each of the Parties:

Labour - They will lose, lets just get that clear, nothing can bring them back to the number 1 slot. Personally I think this will mean Brown will have to go and then the leadership contest begins. Whether he goes willingly or not will only affect the timing. Then the party will have to make a choice, Old Labour, under someone like Ed Balls, or New Labour under a Miliband.

Conservatives - The likely outcome at this stage is a minority Tory government, or a tiny majority. Either way, I have a feeling that Cameron and his circle will be blamed for taking the party from a 14 point poll lead, to neck and neck with the Liberal Democrats. Depending on the mood of the Party Cameron might walk away unscathed, or he might come in badly wounded.

Lib Dems - Last but not least, the Lib Dems will have to consolodate their relative success for the next election. This will involve a major shakeup of the party. They won't get lucky twice, and will need a professional and aggressive campaign if they want to bootstrap themselves to further electoral success.

There's a lot of other things to consider, particularly voting reform. But for the minute that will have to do.

1 comment:

  1. Certainly in agreement about Gordon's future, and I suspect it'll be sooner rather than later. Since he took over from Blair he's rarely been thought of as an asset (in the public's eyes at least), and it's all seemed downhill over the past month.

    And yep, I'm expecting (and hoping) the Lib Dem's attitude will be very aggressive! Slipping back down the polls again in 4 years' time could lose them everything they've gained this time around, and they have a hard fight ahead to get the media to pay attention to them.

    I'm not sure Cameron will be particularly wounded though - particularly if they're a minority in government, surely they'd want to project as unified an image as possible right from the start?